Making the Wave
Building the Future of Energy in a Risk-Off World
I speak to fellow entrepreneurs, aspiring entrepreneurs, corporate leaders and investors every week, and there are several questions that consistently come up:
How is the investment ecosystem right now?
How is the current landscape impacting or going to impact the market and buying behaviors?
Why do you do what you do, it seems really hard?
There’s a phrase I keep coming back to from the article written by
and - https://substack.com/home/post/p-160420476: “Some ride the wave. Others make it”Why I Started a Company
Let’s start with why we do what we do at VECKTA given that we’ve chosen to make the wave. And while that may sound glamorous, the reality is more nuanced. Our work takes grit, is filled with risk, and is absolutely worth it. We’ve sacrificed comfort, left behind corporate salaries, and are investing the most valuable years of our careers into reshaping how the world powers itself, not just for the next quarter, but for the next generation. We’re here to unlock billions in stranded value. To empower businesses to control their power. And to deliver profitable, sustainable and thriving energy outcomes at scale.
That doesn’t mean we have it all figured out. It means we’re committed to building the infrastructure, tools, workflows, community, relationships and trust required to help businesses take control of their energy in a time of growing uncertainty.
And truthfully? It’s really fricken hard and that’s why I love it, but it is definitely not for everyone. Nothing worth doing is meant to be easy and when we are talking about disrupting a century-old mentality, infrastructure and business model, it is expected to be hard. We’re navigating political change, policy and market shifts, investor caution, and corporate inertia, all while helping our customers move toward what we know is one of the greatest opportunities of this generation: onsite energy. This is a fiduciary responsibility, an operational imperative and a societal necessity.
So here is an overview of what I am seeing and feeling in the market right now when I answer the common questions.
Current Landscape: The Market Is Moving & Building Momentum
Despite the noise in the market and the perceived hesitation of everything, businesses are acting. Always slower than I would wish but they are moving and the momentum is growing every quarter, and I understand each company is at a different stage of their journey. In the last week I have met a company that has already deployed 900 onsite energy systems and many others that have yet to begin and are considering their first project.
In the U.S., the commercial industry saw significant energy project growth, installing 535 MWdc in Q3 2024, a 44% increase from Q3 2023. This growth is driven by onsite installations for businesses, non-profits, and governments, historically dominated by states like California, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York due to high energy rates. As rates increase, outages become more prevalent and utilities struggle to meet demand nationally and globally, systems will increasingly be deployed in geographically dispersed locations. Energy storage attachment rates for distributed solar are rising with SEIA projecting 28% of new capacity paired with storage by 2028, up from under 12% in 2023 with the strongest growth in Europe and the Americas. We are seeing that in some markets solar-only no longer makes sense.
McKinzie estimates the distributed energy market to reach $68B per year by 2027. Real estate leaders like Prologis, Blackstone, Brookfield, Clarion, Iron Mountain and their peers deployed more than 929 MWdc of solar in the second half of 2024 alone. Add in Walmart, Amazon, Target, Lineage Logistics, and others, and the direction is clear: the move toward local, clean, reliable energy is accelerating.
These are not pilot projects. They’re strategic moves by companies who see energy as more than an overhead line item, it’s a source of risk, cost, and competitive advantage.
With the mounting pain points, this is only going to drive more action. The grid is failing
I have never been more bullish about this market since starting on this mission many years ago, but we still have a long way to go!
So Why Aren’t More Companies Following Suit At Scale?
Because inertia is real.
Most business leaders weren’t trained to think of energy as something they could influence, because they never needed to. For decades, we just paid the utility and focused elsewhere. Even now, energy procurement often sits in fragmented silos; finance, facilities, sustainability, operations, each with different goals and timelines.
And the status quo solutions for developing and procuring solar energy haven’t helped much. In a dynamic and fragmented market, consultants are expensive, slow, and have misaligned incentives with their customers (this is why I left my role leading one of the largest energy consulting practices - story for another day). Developers are often incentivized to sell what they know, which makes sense, but it rarely delivers the optimal outcome (solution, price or terms) for the buying company.
Often, the easiest option was/is to do nothing; however, the cost of inaction is now having significant consequences as energy costs rise, outage risks grow, and sustainability pressures mount - Breaking the Corporate Permafrost.
What We've Learned Working With Thousands of Sites
There is a lot of concern about tariffs, incentives and more. But this is nothing new for the energy industry, incentives come and go, sometimes federal, sometimes state or more local, and equipment suppliers navigate the changing landscape to meet demand. At VECKTA, we’ve worked across more than 25,000 sites, analyzing and configuring onsite systems that are tailored to each facility’s actual needs, whether that’s cost savings, reliability, emissions reductions, or a combination. We’ve simulated endless scenarios; tariff hikes, equipment cost changes, changes to tax credits, interest rates and many more, and we’ve consistently seen that well-designed systems remain financially strong.
In fact, even with the worst-case tariff and associated equipment cost increases and 0% ITC, our platform was able to deliver positive NPV and strong IRRs across national portfolios for clients. The ability to strategize, analyze, scenario plan and test is key.
This isn’t hypothetical. It’s happening. And it’s getting more compelling by the day.
Investment Landscape
We’re seeing tailwinds in customer demand. But on the investment side, it’s a mixed bag. Some investors see the opportunity, the leaders understand the macro trends and see the wave is building:
Energy makes up 4%—40% of business operating costs and rising.
New facilities or new energy loads (robotics, AI, EV fleets, heat pumps) are restricted by grid capacity and may need to wait years for access.
Grid outages are weekly headlines.
Energy prices have risen 22–70+% in major U.S. markets over the last four years
Utility developments are choking on interconnection delays.
Transformers, turbines and other critical supplies have 120+ week lead times.
Financial institutions, regulators, supply chains and customers are expecting sustainable operations.
But many are hesitant, they do not understand the market opportunity, the pain points and they are often not comfortable with the commercial and industrial markets - particularly the decision-making timeframes and internal processes. The most typical questions, misconceptions and hesitations are:
“The tech’s not ready.” — It is. Whether it is solar, storage, gas turbines, or controllers…the technology is proven and costs have plummeted.
“Batteries are too expensive.” — Having dropped in price by over 90% in the last 10 years and providing stackable benefits when deployed correctly, the payback on batteries can be incredible.
“Systems need to be 100% renewable” - based on the needs of the facility and customer, existing utility tariffs, outage risks, emissions, local constraints, incentives and so much more, every system to have the maximum impact should be configured on merit. This includes considering all technologies. Ideally, a system is highly renewable, but in some cases, due to large loads, space constraints or outage protection needs, other technologies need to be considered. This is positive and results in holistic outcomes.
“Incentives drive the business case.” — Not anymore. VECKTA projects show strong returns even with 0% ITC. Yes incentives are definitely nice to have and continue to drive momentum in the market, who wouldn’t want 30%-50% of their project costs covered? But, the market has changed and these systems can often compete on merit as the energy market changes, particularly as we continue to reduce the soft costs associated with developing these projects (often making up 30%-70% of total project costs in the market today).
“The utility will deliver” — The utilities have the best intentions and are doing everything they can, but are dealing with infrastructure and business models that are past their sell by dates. Designed for our past energy needs and not to handle this explosion in demand, greater renewables penetration, bi-directional energy and to do so affordably and reliably. Utilities will take decades to catch up, and in doing so, rates will only go in one direction, making onsite even more viable.
“C&I decision making is too slow and projects take too long’ - Agreed! And this is why we exist and why we need to invest as an industry in more enabling technologies to support busienss leaders to make confident and informed decisions based on dreal time and tailored data, intelligence and repeatable workflows.
These are the same misconceptions that kept businesses from moving to the cloud, adopting email over fax, social media over radio ads, uber over taxis, or embracing AI, robotics and more. And just like those shifts, the late movers will pay to catch up or get left behind.
But many have been and continue to hold off. Burned by cleantech 1.0, waiting for covid to pass, election outcomes, interest rate stability, or clearer policy signals…in the last 5+ years there has always been something. And it is complex, with less IPOs, less M&A, less exits…LPs are looking for payouts and they are not getting them. VCs are finding it harder to raise their own funds and the trickle-down effect is real. This is compounding, unable to raise new rounds, companies are turning to existing investors who try and balance the need to support internal rounds over new investments. Risk tolerance is eroded and investment metrics become more significant. The “grow at all costs and raise every 18-24 months” mentality has shifted to “get to profitability”. All this slows the market.
And I get it, but I think what many are missing is that volatility is not the enemy, it’s the opportunity. Political cycles, tariff shifts, interest rate moves, and inflation aren’t going away. Those that have adaptable business models and solutions that provide clarity, insights and navigate turbulence will be successful. We may not see overnight success stories in this industry, nor should we really expect to, we are dealing with critical infrastructure. But what could be more valuable than investing in the lifeblood of our businesses, economy, society, prosperity, health and well-being?
Why We’re Making the Wave (Not Just Catching One)
We’re not just trying to ride a market trend; at VECKTA and our peers in this industry are creating a new category. Because what exists today simply isn’t working.
The incumbent energy solution is failing us. The way companies access and deploy onsite energy solutions is too fragmented, too complex, too expensive, too slow and often results in suboptimal outcomes. Most businesses are left frozen, not sure who to trust, where to begin or how to win.
We need better solutions. We need to make energy simple, accessible, fun and affordable, not just for the biggest players but for every business that wants to cut costs, increase resilience, and reduce emissions.
But making a wave takes more than software. It takes education, support, long-term commitments, trusted relationships and aligned outcomes. It takes a mindset that values acting and adapting, over perfection and compounding success over flash in the pan one-off wins.
It takes leaders, investors, partners, and teams who understand that real change, wave-making change, requires time, sacrifice, and relentless commitment. The swell builds slowly, then all at once. And those who stay focused, adapt to the tide, and deliver value through the chaos are those who will win.
This isn’t a hype cycle. It’s a generational shift in how we power our world. It’s being shaped by rising demand, evolving regulations, climate impacts, and grid challenges. That swell isn’t slowing down.
I am not saying this is easy. But I am saying it’s inevitable.
Don’t Wait for the Perfect Conditions
There’s never a perfect moment to act.
For business leaders: stop waiting. Take control of your energy outcomes. Lock in costs. Eliminate risk. Build resilience. Be the company your investors, employees and customers want to be a part of.
For investors: don’t wait until it's obvious. By then, you’ll have missed the boat or be paying a premium to catch up. Look beyond the short-term noise and see the macro trends. Be the enabler not the follower.
The most successful companies and investors don’t wait for the skies to clear or the tidal wave to be formed, they read the tea leaves, build the systems that create the wave and then ride the wave, while building the next one.
It is easy to get frustrated, lose confidence and tread water, but there is no better time and no bigger opportunity. I could not be more focused and excited. Thank you to all those who are embracing change and sometimes discomfort to make and ride this wave - it takes a village!
